According to the analysis of relevant data, the packaging paper industry in 2018 or the present situation: the supply and demand is basically matched, the intensity of environmental protection continues to be high, and the import quota of waste paper may decline. In the case of the packaging industry, the profit elasticity will continue to be released, and the oligopoly structure will become more prominent.
In the past 2016-2017 years, the price of paper has gone up sharply, and the leading enterprises are in the sweet stage of high profits.
China's paper industry has experienced the natural clearing at the bottom in 2011-2015 years, the industry pattern has become reasonable, the superposition of environmental protection continues to increase, the supply end is accelerated, the 2016-2017 year paper price is substantially upward, and the leading enterprise is in the sweet period of high profit.
In 2018, due to the basic matching supply and demand, continuing to tighten the environmental policy, the profitability of the paper paper will continue to release, and the fundamentals of the paper plate are still good.
Environmental protection efforts continue to be high, and the new capacity of the packaging and paper industry is landing or blocked.
In the packaging paper market, the industry generally believes that the new production capacity of the industry in 2018 is about 5 million tons, but due to strict environmental protection, some new planning capacity may be stranded or delayed halfway. Meanwhile, the demand for wrapping paper needs to grow about 5% annually. Therefore, the actual landing capacity is known to have little influence on the industry pattern.
Every year, the quantity of paper and corrugated paper imported from our country is very small. No matter the fluctuation of paper price, the import of the board and paper is not more than 400 thousand tons, and the corrugated paper is not more than 300 thousand tons, which has little influence on the whole supply and demand. Therefore, the supply and demand pattern of the packaging industry will probably remain balanced.
The import quota or decline of waste paper will be an oligopoly pattern in the packaging industry.
From the perspective of policy caliber in 2018, the import quota of waste paper will decrease to a certain extent compared with that in 2017, which will lead to a continuous rise in the price of national waste. But it is worth noting that the volume of large paper mills will be much larger than that of small paper mills, which will also lead to oligopoly in the industry.
At the same time, the center of the waste price of the country moves up to support the center of the paper, and the paper faucets, such as nine dragons, Richard and Mountain Eagle, will continue to gain the profitability of the industry.